2022, the third year of the epidemic, can be regarded as an inflection point year for mobile robots .

　　This year, financing has become less easy, stories have become less easy to tell, investors have begun to pay attention to profitability, market orders have become less easy to obtain, supply chains have become "tsundere", and layoffs have become more difficult. Get used to it...

　　Fortunately, the basic market for mobile robots is still there. On the one hand, the demand for domestic manufacturing is still resilient, especially in the fields of automobiles and new energy; on the other hand, overseas demand continues to be released, and many domestic manufacturers have entered the international market. The proportion continued to increase.

　　Whether it is layoffs or business contraction, it is a normal business strategy in a special period. In the first half of the year, because of the epidemic and supply chain factors, the atmosphere of pessimism and involution permeated the industry. Under the special period, many Downstream industries are also facing greater survival and operating pressures. For example, in the first half of the year, the panel industry and PCB industry saw a sharp decline in operating rates and investment willingness.

　　The entire industry chain has begun to show a clear trend of differentiation. The leading manufacturers are largely ahead of other manufacturers in terms of financial strength, supply chain resilience, and customer quality. Under this situation, their advantages are expected to further expand. Based on their own stronger resource advantages and ability to resist risks, leading manufacturers can outperform other manufacturers when the industry is good, and beat other manufacturers when the industry is not good. This is one of the most obvious features in 2022 — Differentiation.

　　The same differentiation trend is also happening at the capital level. First, compared with 2021, the overall financing enthusiasm has dropped sharply, and the difficulty and threshold of corporate financing have become higher; the second is the transfer of capital, seeking higher certainty when transferring to leading companies To seek strategic opportunities, such as unmanned forklifts.

　　After several years of development, mobile robot manufacturers have basically completed the education of the demand side and the capital side, and have a deeper understanding of their own boundaries. "The so-called strategy ultimately boils down to trade-offs. For those institutions that expect companies to "eat the sky with one trick" and "the leftover is king", 2022 will only bring "sobriety" and "disappointment" forward.

　　Gaogong Robotics Industry Research Institute (GGII) combs the mobile robot industry, combines macro data and research data information, adheres to the attitude of not being pessimistic, not optimistic, and striving for objectivity, and deeply analyzes the ten predictions of the mobile robot industry in 2023:

　　Industry level:

　　1. The limited recovery of the 3C industry in 2023, the automobile and new energy industries will be the main driving forces for the demand for mobile robots. GGII believes that the new energy industry will continue its high growth trend in the next three years, and the continuation of the expansion wave will have a negative impact on AGV/ AMR generates a large demand pull. It is estimated that the demand for mobile robots in the new energy industry (lithium battery, photovoltaic, etc.) is expected to exceed 24% in 2023.

　　2. The downstream demand is becoming more and more comprehensive, and the single product strategy is facing challenges. "Expanding product lines = improving capabilities" has become the active choice of many mobile robot companies. The market concentration of each subdivided product line continues to increase, and the Matthew effect intensifies.

　　Product level:

　　3. Industrial AMR: The proportion of industrial AMR sales continues to increase. In 2023, the proportion of sales is expected to exceed 21%. Concerned industries include automobiles and parts, new energy (lithium battery, photovoltaic, etc.).

　　4. Unmanned forklifts: entrants continue to increase, innovative products continue to be launched, market competition intensifies, and product prices continue to decline. It is estimated that the market sales will be close to 17,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 50%. Among them, manufacturers with annual sales of more than 1,000 units are expected to exceed 5.

　　5. Container robots: new entrants are decreasing, and the sales volume in the Chinese market is expected to exceed 6,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 60%. The market structure tends to be dynamically balanced, and the top 5 companies account for more than 90% of the market share.

　　6. Four-way shuttle: With the increase of entrants, it is expected that the sales of four-way shuttles in China will exceed 5,000 units in 2023, of which the sales of pallet four-way vehicles will account for more than 80%.

　　7. Kiva-like AGV: The growth rate of demand in the domestic commercial circulation field is slowing down, and the sales volume of kiva-like AGV is shrinking year by year. It is expected that the sales volume in 2023 will be less than 50%.

　　8. Composite robots: The application field continues to expand, and the overall cost has dropped significantly. It is expected that the sales volume will exceed 2,200 units in 2023, with a growth rate of more than 50%. Among them, the proportion of 3C, semiconductor, and CNC processing fields will increase rapidly.

　　Market level:

　　9. In 2023, the sales volume of China Mobile's robots is expected to exceed 110,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 35%, and the market size exceeds 13 billion yuan. The growth rate of demand in the field of commerce and circulation has slowed down, and the manufacturing field has become a battleground. The energy industry continues to become more crowded and more competitive.

　　10. The competition pattern of "two superpowers and multiple strong" in China Mobile robot market has begun to take shape. In 2023, there may be 2 manufacturers with annual revenue of China Mobile robots exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, and the number of manufacturers with annual revenue exceeding 500 million yuan is expected to reach 5, the market concentration has further increased.

　　Written at the end: How did the gap between enterprises widen?

　　Use a sentence from a senior to summarize the gap between domestic industrial software and foreign industrial software: because you can’t see it, you can’t think of it. If you can’t think of it, you can’t do it. This is also one of the reasons why the current mobile robot manufacturers widen the gap. The larger customers put forward more comprehensive and complex needs. From planning to implementation, it is not clear which key nodes there will be, and how to improve and match them at the software and hardware level.

　　This is what will happen with high probability now and in the future. Big manufacturers marry big customers, waist manufacturers join hands with waist customers, how to break the situation? The core point is to grasp the opportunities of new industries, from industry-scenario-Know-how-product How to form a closed loop is a question worthy of everyone's consideration.

　　2023 is worthy of your all-out efforts!