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The Chinese new energy vehicle market will maintain moderate growth in July

Date:2022-06-20   Author:XINDA MOTOR

From January to April 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 1.605 million and 1.556 million respectively, and the proportion of new energy vehicle production and sales in the total automobile production and sales will reach 20.9% and 20.2% respectively. In April 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 299,000, of which 231,000 were pure electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%; the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 68,000, a year-on-year increase of 94%. According to the forecast of the leading index, the new energy vehicle market will maintain a moderate growth state from June to July 2022. Next, let's take a look at the detailed interpretation of this issue of the new energy vehicle consumption prosperity index.

■ Market production and sales trend analysis

  In April 2022, in the sales structure of the pure electric passenger car market, mini cars, SUVs, and compacts accounted for about 31.0%, 31.1%, and 21.4%; Compact, medium and large accounted for about 63.8%, 22.0% and 10.0%. In April 2022, Hongguang MINIEV, Song PLUS DM, Qin PLUS DM, BYD Dolphin and other models led the sales, with 27,000, 20,000, 12,000 and 12,000 vehicles respectively, accounting for about 23.7% of the total market. Among the new car-building forces, in April 2022, Ideal, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Weilai, and Leapmotor were 4,167, 9,002, 8,813, 5,074, and 9,087 respectively, achieving -24.77% and 74.90% respectively. , 119.50%, -28.56%, 232.98% year-on-year growth.

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■ Analysis of new energy industry prosperity index

  In April 2022, the consensus index of the new energy vehicle industry was 102.9 points, and the market development was still stable. Affected by the epidemic, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased month-on-month and achieved year-on-year growth, but it was close to the recession threshold. According to the forecast of the leading index, the new energy vehicle market will maintain a moderate growth state from June to July 2022. In the early stage, the epidemic situation repeated, the parts supply chain continued to be tense, and some car companies stopped production and reduced production. Recently, the epidemic situation has been gradually brought under control, and the auto industry has accelerated the resumption of work and production, and the supply improvement trend is obvious.

  During the same period, the economic development of the whole society and the income of residents under the influence of the epidemic have been affected, and automobile consumption has also been suppressed. For new energy vehicle companies, it is recommended to continue to ensure the supply chain for large-scale development and further optimize the layout of the supply chain. For dealers, they should rationally estimate the actual market demand and actively respond to the impact of repeated epidemics. The lag index will continue to maintain a relatively high degree of prosperity in April 2022, and it will continue to verify that the previous forecast of the high popularity of the new energy vehicle market is in line with reality.

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   Affected by the current round of the epidemic, the production and sales of automobiles caused by the obstruction of upstream and downstream supply chains and the stagnation of production and consumption have emerged. If the epidemic is repeated and improperly controlled, production and sales will continue to be affected, which is not optimistic. However, if the epidemic is properly controlled, the auto industry resumes work and production quickly, and the market demand is stimulated, it is expected that the loss of new energy vehicle production and sales in the second quarter will be made up in the second half of the year, and the withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles next year will also stimulate companies to compete in the second half of the year. In terms of installed volume, my country's new energy vehicle market may show a trend of low front and high back this year. Under the optimistic scenario, it is expected to reach about 5 million production and sales expectations.

As the new energy vehicle market is expected to rise, power battery companies have accelerated production expansion. The production capacity may reach 1,000GWh in 2022, but the total demand is expected to be around 400GWh. In recent years, my country's power battery industry has experienced structural overcapacity problems such as insufficient supply of high-end high-quality production capacity and insufficient orders for low-end production capacity. The capacity utilization rate of leading enterprises exceeds 80%, but the capacity utilization rate of many disadvantaged enterprises is below 20%, and the capacity utilization rate of disadvantaged enterprises is below 20%. Serious excess.

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  Although my country's power batteries are supporting the international market, they are currently dominated by dominant companies such as the Ningde era. In the second half of this year, there may be explosive growth of new energy vehicles, and the problem of insufficient production capacity of advantageous enterprises and overcapacity of disadvantaged enterprises will become more prominent. It is recommended that management should avoid blind expansion of low-end production capacity.

  Since 2022, the supply of automotive chips is still in short supply. As of early May, due to the shortage of chips, the global auto market has reduced production by nearly 1.7 million units this year, and the Chinese auto market has reduced production by more than 90,000 units. The industry generally predicts that the chip supply problem will not be relieved until the end of 2022. At present, major domestic foundry companies such as SMIC and Hua Honghong already have mainstream process manufacturing capabilities. The government should increase funding and scientific research support to accelerate the establishment of 65/55nm, 40nm, 28nm and other mainstream process automotive-grade chips Manufacturing capacity, give priority to solving the problem of starting production lines from scratch, and gradually guide the expansion of production capacity.