Who in Chinese domestic motor industry is "involved" in the eVTOL track? How to take advantage of this trillion-dollar industry?

According to the latest statistics, workers in China's major cities spend an average of 72 minutes commuting every day!

If you work in Shanghai and live in Suzhou, every day when you get off work, you may take the subway to the high-speed rail station to buy a ticket, and then take the high-speed rail home, which takes more than an hour one way. If I tell you now: there is a new mode of transportation that can take you back to your home in Suzhou from the office in half an hour, isn’t it tempting?

That's right, this new way of dream travel is the eVTOL that has become popular recently at home and abroad. eVTOL refers to electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft. According to its different construction methods, eVTOL vertical take-off and landing aircraft are mainly divided into two categories: vertical take-off and landing fixed-wing eVTOL and multi-rotor eVTOL. As a new type of medium- and short-distance air transportation tool, the potential future applications of eVTOL involve urban passenger transportation (UAM), regional passenger transportation (RAM), freight, personal aircraft, emergency medical services and other scenario modes, which will provide new solutions to alleviate urban traffic congestion.

For example, from the perspective of price, a senior industry insider said that currently helicopters cost about 100 yuan per minute, while eVTOL can already be priced between 20 and 30 yuan. At the same time, pure electric aircraft will not cause pollution, whether it is emission pollution or noise pollution. As for safety and reliability, as a distributed electric propulsion eVTOL aircraft, safety redundancy can already achieve the same safety and reliability as large aircraft.

More people will certainly want such services when they are convenient, time-efficient and inexpensive, which is also an important reason for the rapid rise of eVTOL in recent years.

As an innovative mode of transportation, eVTOL has the advantages of high safety, low noise, low manufacturing cost, and low operating cost. It is small in size and does not rely on runways. It has greater freedom when flying and parking, and is more conducive to travel within cities. It is the mainstream solution for the future UAM market.

Global Market Analysis

At present, the domestic eVTOL track has gathered more than 20 to 30 companies, including Ehang Intelligent, Fengfei Aviation, Shi Technology, Wofei Changkong, Shanhe Technology, Volant, and Yufeng Future . Joby Aviation, Lilium, Volocopter, Vertical, Archer, Embraer, Beta and other companies in Europe and the United States have also launched eVTOL products.

In addition to start-ups, traditional aircraft or aircraft engine giants and automobile giants are also loyal fans of this blue ocean. Whether it is Boeing, Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Geely, Toyota, Daimler, Audi, Hyundai, Honda, Xiaopeng, Aion, etc., all of them are "joining in the fun" on the eVTOL track.

As a new mode of transportation that is different from traditional commercial aircraft and cars, eVTOL aircraft also face some huge challenges, including noise issues, battery life, airworthiness and safety, air traffic management, professional R&D platforms and other professional and policy requirements.

A similar problem is that compared to eVTOL, general aviation aircraft need a runway to take off, which also means that a large area is needed to build a general aviation airport. However, there are only more than 300 general aviation airports in my country at present, and they are all in relatively remote areas.

In the low-altitude tourism market, such as near 5A scenic spots, it is difficult to have a general aviation airport, which requires a large amount of land and is expensive. The infrastructure required by eVTOL can be a lawn or an open space, plus a charging station. Once its application is rolled out, it can form a networked travel pattern.

However, if we were to rank the difficulty of eVTOL's technology research and development, related supporting policies, the degree of perfection of the supply chain, and the monetization of the business model, the technical test is the greatest, and it needs to be considered in conjunction with the supply chain. The second is the support at the policy level, and commercialization is the part that least needs to be considered.

Some industry insiders also said that as long as the product can meet the price and timeliness we mentioned, it will definitely sell and will definitely be a hit, so there is no need to worry too much about whether anyone will pay for it.

But it is undeniable that the current understanding of eVTOL in China has not yet reached a completely high degree of consistency, and the concepts of drones, flying cars, eVTOL, and general aviation aircraft are often confused. This is just like the hybrid stage of new energy vehicles.

Industry insiders believe that in terms of success factors, eVTOL requires certain capital support, aviation supply chain, and overall policy support, and finally a certain technical team. Only when these factors are organically combined can a good product be produced.

However, from a commercial perspective, eVTOL, like new energy vehicles, is a mobile tool that is converted to electric power, but the threshold for aircraft is relatively high, and it requires a first-mover advantage, such as the certification of the Civil Aviation Administration. This is not a "fast overtaking" that can be achieved by investing more money and employing more people. Fortunately, there is such a "first-mover advantage".

 E20 eVTOL take-off and landing field effect

Objectively speaking, the popularity of eVTOL in China benefits from the technological spillover of new energy vehicles, especially the three-electric system.

A large number of supporting companies have emerged in China for the development of eVTOL motors, some of which have been in business for many years, while others are new. In this context, according to feedback from many insiders, compared with the whole machine, the eVTOL motor supporting can be said to be the most exposed, and the competition based on configuration, engineering and lawsuits is too weak, and price reduction is the most cost-effective for customers.

There are probably many reasons for this problem, which is also our tradition:

▶ As the whole machine is short of money, but the requirements are high (always want to get it all in one go), and at the same time they are afraid that they will become the one who fills the hole, so no matter how much engineering technology investment the domestic supporting suppliers make, it will be ineffective. Only by lowering the price can the risk concerns of customers filling the hole be relieved. Little do they know, the lower the price, the more useless it is.

▶ Many domestic eVTOL complete machine companies basically purchase supporting motors and drives from Europe to realize the flight of full-scale verification aircraft first, while waiting for the formation of domestic supporting equipment, which further reduces the amount of investment available for the accumulation of electric propulsion of the complete machine.

▶ The differentiated background of the motor supporting team is also an important reason. Some are willing to invest in R&D on their own, some are unwilling to invest, and some are still waiting for investment support. As a result, when the product or R&D testing and hardware investment are not competitive enough, some can only choose to make up for it with price. This is a denial of the value of engineers and there is no way it can last.

China's aviation commercial supporting enterprises should learn to go global. Despite the huge uncertain geopolitical risks they are currently facing, it is still important to understand that a successful commercial supporting enterprise cannot be cultivated relying solely on the Chinese market. In this regard, Tianjin Songzheng's recent series of overseas marketing efforts have set an example.